Stock prices are like the weather. In July-August you can safely predict that we will have some hot dry days and sometime in January or February that it will be very cold and we will have snow. But you cannot accurately predict sunshine or rain, two weeks into the future. Come January-February, your cold with snow, predication has come true. You now can safely predict that come April it will be warmer and we will have some rain and come July-August we will have at least a few hot, sunny, dry days. But you will not be able to predict in two weeks what the weather will be like.  Past history tells us this is so, and the same is true with stocks. When you see a large group of stocks trading over 2.5 X Book Value, past history tells you that over time they will come down to 1.5 X Book Value or lower. Over the short term they may go even higher but over the long term you know the price will come down.

The same is true with a large group of stocks that are trading at book value or less. You know that over the long term their price will go up over 1.5 X Book Value. But in the short term they are very unpredictable. They might go up or they might go down, NO BODY knows for sure.